2012 is an excellent year for defenseman prospects. You’ve got Ryan Murray, Matthew Dumba, Morgan Reilly, Cody Ceci, Griffin Reinhart, Matt Finn, Derrick Pouliot, Slater Koekkoek – no matter who’s rankings you’re looking at, you can probably find defensemen occupying almost half of the first round.
One guy who isn’t getting the attention he deserves, in my opinion, is Jacob Trouba. Yes, he’s universally ranked in the top-15 and usually in the top-10, but on most media rankings I’m looking at, you can find more than a couple of the above names ranked ahead of Trouba. I think that’s crazy.
There is almost literally nothing not to like about Trouba. He’s got good size – not huge, but at 6’1 – 6’2 and almost 200 pounds, he’s plenty big enough. He was Team USA’s best defenseman in the World Juniors this year – ahead of already drafted previous first round picks like Jarred Tinordi and Derek Forbort. Granted, Team USA was a disaster – but Trouba was very, very good in a tournament where the stars are usually 19 year olds – and he was more impressive than Murray was in the same tournament. He’s a fantastic skater and has good offensive capabilities, including a powerful point shot. He likes to hit – but he’s very smart about it and is rarely caught out of position defensively. He doesn’t panic with the puck on his stick and he makes very good breakout passes. This is one of the most complete, talented defenseman prospects to come around in a while.
This is no exaggeration. If it sounds like I’m saying Trouba has almost no weaknesses in his game, it’s probably because I am. His overall offensive game does need work, but the potential is obviously there. As it is, he’s probably a pretty safe pick – it’s hard to imagine he won’t be at worst a #5/6 defenseman somewhere – if he bulked up a bit, he could probably be that next year, although he would probably benefit from an extra year or two of development somewhere. But if his offensive game comes around and his development goes as expected, he is one of the few guys who could be a true #1 defenseman.
He’s drawn comparisons to Jack Johnson, which in my opinion are off-base – he’s going to be much better defensively than JJ, and his offensive game isn’t quite what Johnson’s is (though it could definitely get there). I think they’re a completely different type of player. Jack Johnson is known as an offensive defenseman.. Trouba is definitely a shut-down type guy first, although he can do it all. A better comparison I’ve seen is Jake Gardiner.. they have very similar playing styles and skillsets, though I think Trouba has a little more upside – which is saying a lot, because Gardiner is a very good young player.
With Dumba, you have an offense-first defenseman – though he’s a heck of a player and is not bad defensively at all. With Reilly, you have question marks about his injuries and also defensive ability to some extent, although there may not be a more offensively talented blueliner in the draft. No prospect is a sure thing, but every defenseman prospect in this draft has some question marks with the exception of Murray and Trouba. I don’t see how he can’t be the #2 defenseman in the draft – and I’d carefully consider putting him above Murray, too. He’s a top-3 prospect in my opinion, and I think a lot of people are overlooking this kid. The Jets are picking at #9, and I’m desperately hoping there are eight other NHL teams who overlook him too (and, of course, that the Jets do not). He’s going to make some NHL team very happy.
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