Stanley Cup Predictions

For the past two years we’ve put UHS to the test…  how accurate can it be…?  can it predict the outcomes of playoff games?  The last two seasons it was marginally successful…  I believe it scored around the 60% mark.  Definitely not something you’d want to start relying on to play Pro-Line.

Well…  we’re at it again…  These predictions were made using the line-ups found on DailyFaceoff.com…  a great site for finding out who the starting goaltenders are, who is injured and what the potential line ups are going to be.

After each game day, I’ll post up the pre-game roster sim results along with the post-game sim results… I’d like to use the actual game rosters to see how UHS compares.  I may not get to it after each game but they’ll eventually be done.

For these simulations please note:
– Chemistry is OFF.
– Out of Position Negative modifiers is OFF.
– Sometimes teams put a forward as a defenseman on a powerplay unit… in these cases we’ve had to place the next D-man in that spot as UHS does not allow forwards in defenseman spots.
– The games are based on the lines and starting goaltenders found on DailyFaceoff.com…  we won’t know if they are 100% accurate until the game has been played… but they’re going to be fairly accurate.
– NHL player’s height and weight fields are not accurate… this could plays a bigger part in determining check results and can affect the outcomes of games.

Preliminary Round

Vancouver vs. Los Angeles
UHS: Vancouver will take this series in 7 games.  Initially LA had a 3 – 0 series lead but the Canucks bounced back to eliminate the Kings.
James: Vancouver is thanking their stars they’re not going against Chicago, however, I think this series is going to come down to goaltending…  Luongo vs. Quick…  I’ll say Vancouver takes this series in 7, but not because of Luongo…  It’s a good thing they didn’t trade Schneider at the deadline.

St. Louis vs. San Jose
UHS: San Jose knocks of St.Louis in 5 games.  All the games were fairly close, so the RNG (random number generator) gods could certainly have favoured the Sharks in this case…  and it could certainly have gone the other way.
James: I know they’re the number 3 team in the league… but… it’s ST.LOUIS we’re talking about here.  My Sharks could certainly pull off an upset, however, I think overall, the Blues are going to take this in 6.

Phoenix vs. Chicago
UHS: Phoenix takes out Chicago in 5.  The simulator says that Phoenix will basically dominate the Blackhawks… only one win was decided by a single goal… the rest were 3 or 4 goal differences.
James: I have to disagree with UHS.  Chicago just has too much talent to get knocked off by Phoenix.  The ONLY thing they really have going for them is Mike Smith.  But I think Chicago’s snipers are going to make short work of him.  Chicago in 5.

Nashville vs. Detroit
UHS: Nashville beats Detroit in 7 games.  The home team won the first four games…  then the away teams won games 5 and 6.  Nashville takes game 7 in overtime.
James: I can agree with this.  Detroit is fading… and while they are introducing young players again…  they’re not the dominant force they used to be.  I will say Nasville in 6 games.

New York Rangers vs. Ottawa
UHS: Ottawa upsets the Rangers in 6 games.  The games were all relatively close… with the exception of game 3.. Ottawa won that one 8 – 1.. I imagine Lundqvist went down or something.
James: I really dislike both teams…  but I honestly can’t see Ottawa beating New York… even in 7…  I’ll go with New York in 5.

Boston vs. Washington
UHS: Boston beats Washington in 5 games.  More or less a complete dominance over the Capitals.  Boston even gets a 5 – 0 shut-out in game 3.
James: There are two questions here…  1. Will Tim Thomas put up the same performance as he did last year?  2. Will Ovechkin snap out of his ego-driven BS and actually lead the team?  I think the answers are 1. Yes and 2. No.  Boston in 6.

Florida vs. New Jersey
UHS: New Jersey takes this in 7 games.  This series was back and forth the whole way.  I was surprised that Florida put up that much of a fight.
James: Even though they are the number 3 seed it’s merely through a quirk of the NHL Playoff structure… hopefully the NHL will go to a top-16 format and let the teams have at it.  Anyway… back to this series.  I think New Jersey will take this one in 5.

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
UHS: Apparently the simulator doesn’t Philadelphia…  good… neither do I.  Pittsburgh sweeps the Flyers out of the playoffs.
James: This is going to be a battle.  Crosby is either going to shine or he’s going to get his head taken off.  If I have to make a pick… I’m going to give the edge to Pittsburgh…  Penguins in 7.

Quarter Finals

These are based on the outcomes that UHS predicted and continue to use the same rosters that they have now.

San Jose sweeps Vancouver out.  All the games were close except for a 4 – 0 victory in game 3.  While I would LOVE for this to happen, I don’t think the Sharks would be able to beat Vancouver…  unless they didn’t pull Luongo out fast enough if he started to crash.

Phoenix beats Nashville in 6.  Most of the games were relatively close… 2 goals but Nashville always won by at least 3 goals.  In the real world I think Nashville goes on… Mike Smith may be hot but it depends if that streak can carry on… Rinne is the real deal.

Ottawa upsets Boston in 6. There were a couple of big blow out games here, however, the remainder of the series was close.  This could be the act of the RNG gods at play here, but in the real world there is no way Anderson beats out Thomas.

New Jersey sweeps Pittsburgh.  I’d say this could possibly happen…  after a tough series with Philadelphia the Pens may not have enough stuff to go up against the Devils who likely had an easy ride against the Panthers.

Semi Finals

San Jose beats Phoenix in 6 games.  I think it’s unlikely this series would happen, however, the numbers say that Phoenix is the better team.  I again think it’s only because of hot goaltending.  While it can get you far (look at the Ducks) it’s likely due to fizzle out (look at Jon Casey – Minnesota v. Pittsburgh).  I would give this series to San Jose…  just cause they’re my buds.

New Jersey sweeps Ottawa.  Possibly.  What’s more likely to happen is that New Jersey could take these clowns out in 5 or 6 games.  Anderson will win them one or two but that’ll be it.

Stanley Cup Finals

New Jersey beats San Jose in 5 games.  Apparently the Cinderella post-season is over for San Jose.  New Jersey continues to get easy opponents and cruises to another Stanley Cup victory.  This series will at least save Doug Wilson’s job as GM.  In reality…  well…  I love my Sharks…  but I think New Jersey would ultimately win out in 7.

This is what I think is REALLY going to happen:
Round 1
Vancouver beats Los Angeles.
St. Louis beats San Jose.
Chicago beats Phoenix.
Nashville beats Detroit.
New York Rangers beat Ottawa.
Boston beats Washington.
New Jersey beats Florida.
Philadelphia beats Pittsburgh.

Round 2
Chicago beats Vancouver.
Nashville beats St.Louis.
New York Rangers beat New Jersey.
Philadelphia beats Boston.

Round 3
Nashville beats Chicago.
New York Rangers beat Philadelphia.

Stanley Cup
New York Rangers beat Nashville.

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